50-year global economic outlook shows regional shifts
The world is on the cusp of a dramatic economic transformation. According to Goldman Sachs Research, the fastest years of global economic growth are behind us, with expansion slowing as population growth weakens and productivity faces new challenges. Yet, the next five decades will see emerging economies—especially in Asia and Africa—rise to unprecedented prominence, reshaping the global retail landscape in profound ways.
Slower global growth, shifting centers of power
Goldman Sachs projects that worldwide potential growth will average 2.8% annually between 2024 and 2029, gradually declining thereafter. This is a marked slowdown compared to the 3.6% average before the global financial crisis and 3.2% before the Covid pandemic. The primary drivers? Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years and is expected to stall by 2075. Productivity growth is also slowing, partly due to reduced globalization.
Despite this, emerging markets are set to outpace developed markets in relative terms. By 2075, China, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria are forecast to be among the world’s five largest economies, with the United States maintaining a strong but relatively diminished position. Asia’s economic weight will continue to rise, while Africa’s demographic momentum positions it for large-scale expansion.
Regional economic outlooks
Asia: The new economic epicenter
Asia’s ascent is driven by investment in human capital, infrastructure, and innovation. China is expected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy around 2035, while India will catch up by 2075. Indonesia, with its rapidly growing middle class, is emerging as Southeast Asia’s leading economy. Strategic initiatives like China’s Belt and Road initiative are laying the groundwork for dominance in trade and supply chains.
Africa: Demographic powerhouse
Africa’s advantage lies in its young, fast-growing population. By 2075, Nigeria is projected to be among the top five economies globally. Improved internet access, rising tech entrepreneurship, and foreign investment are accelerating growth. African cities like Lagos and Nairobi are becoming hubs for fintech, healthtech, and logistics, attracting global investors and driving retail innovation.
The West: Facing structural challenges
While the U.S. is expected to nearly double its GDP, it will be overtaken by China and India. Western Europe faces more significant hurdles: aging populations, slower productivity growth, and constrained innovation. Countries like Germany, France, and Italy are projected to slip in global economic rankings, which will impact their retail sectors through reduced consumer demand and slower market expansion.
What the future holds for the retail sector
Asia and Africa: Retail’s new frontiers
As incomes rise and populations urbanize, Asia and Africa will become the world’s most dynamic retail markets. The burgeoning middle class in these regions will drive demand for consumer goods, digital services, and innovative retail formats. E-commerce, mobile payments, and omnichannel experiences will flourish, supported by rapid technological adoption and infrastructure development.
Retailers will need to adapt to local preferences, invest in digital transformation, and build resilient supply chains. The rise of local brands and startups will challenge global incumbents, fostering a competitive, diverse retail ecosystem.
Developed markets: Reinvention and specialization
In the West, slower population growth and aging demographics will force retailers to reinvent themselves. Personalization, premium experiences, and health-focused products will become more important. Automation and AI will streamline operations, while sustainability and ethical sourcing will be key differentiators.
Retailers in developed markets may increasingly look to emerging economies for growth opportunities, partnerships, and innovation.
Global trends: Convergence and inequality
Goldman Sachs notes that while global income inequality between countries is falling, local inequality within countries is rising. Retailers must navigate these disparities by offering affordable products, inclusive services, and community engagement. The convergence of incomes will create new opportunities for global brands, but local nuances will remain critical.
The next five decades will see the global economic center of gravity shift decisively toward Asia and Africa. Retailers who anticipate these changes, invest in technology, and embrace local diversity will thrive. The future of retail is global, digital, and dynamic—shaped by demographic trends, economic convergence, and the relentless pursuit of innovation.
About SAI
As a leader in computer vision technology, SAI Group delivers cutting-edge, multi-modal AI solutions into retail environments. Using a unique platform approach, its technology uses existing camera systems to target losses, increase store safety, and underpin operational efficiencies.
All solutions are built from the ground up to ensure the highest levels of security and data protection, respecting the privacy expectations of the public and operating to stringent ethical standards while delivering substantial value to our clients. Globally, SAI monitors millions of transactions per day, protecting the revenues from tens of millions of product sales and hundreds of millions of customer interactions. Its models also accurately identify anti-social behaviour, aggression and violence, helping to de-escalate situations with real-time interfaces to security officers and operations centres.
